September closing cash£50,000£10,000 increase in month
01 / Management overview
Profitable growth. Less room for error.
Extra revenue of £10,000 was absorbed by £7,000 of materials and subcontractor costs and £3,000 of overtime. Gross profit stayed at £48,000; gross margin fell from 43.6% to 40.0%.
September cash reconciles: £40,000 opening + £100,000 customer receipts − £90,000 operating payments = £50,000 closing. The £20,000 gap between profit and cash generation is an increase in receivables in this simplified example.
Decisions for this week: defer the £12,000 equipment commitment, secure the £3,000 collection promise and review delivery pricing. No savings or new spending from these decisions are included in the forecast.
02 / Thirteen weeks of cash
See the pressure point before committing.
Base receipts total £300,000 and payments £285,000. Downside moves a £20,000 receipt from week 8 beyond the forecast horizon; it is delayed, not written off. All payment dates remain unchanged.
Minimum cash £30,000 in week 7. £5,000 above the floor. Closing cash £65,000.
Base cash forecast · 1 Oct–30 Dec 2026 · GBP
Week ending
Opening
Receipts
Payments
Closing
Above £25k floor
W1 · 07 Oct
£50,000
£20,000
£25,000
£45,000
£20,000
W2 · 14 Oct
£45,000
£25,000
£20,000
£50,000
£25,000
W3 · 21 Oct
£50,000
£15,000
£30,000
£35,000
£10,000
W4 · 28 Oct
£35,000
£30,000
£20,000
£45,000
£20,000
W5 · 04 Nov
£45,000
£20,000
£25,000
£40,000
£15,000
W6 · 11 Nov
£40,000
£25,000
£20,000
£45,000
£20,000
W7 · 18 Nov
£45,000
£15,000
£30,000
£30,000
£5,000
W8 · 25 Nov
£30,000
£35,000
£20,000
£45,000
£20,000
W9 · 02 Dec
£45,000
£20,000
£25,000
£40,000
£15,000
W10 · 09 Dec
£40,000
£25,000
£20,000
£45,000
£20,000
W11 · 16 Dec
£45,000
£20,000
£20,000
£45,000
£20,000
W12 · 23 Dec
£45,000
£25,000
£15,000
£55,000
£30,000
W13 · 30 Dec
£55,000
£25,000
£15,000
£65,000
£40,000
13-week total / closing
£50,000
£300,000
£285,000
£65,000
£40,000
Minimum cash £20,000 in week 9. £5,000 below the floor. Closing cash £45,000. Week 9 falls below the floor; weeks 8, 10 and 11 sit at the floor.
Downside cash forecast · 1 Oct–30 Dec 2026 · GBP
Week ending
Opening
Receipts
Payments
Closing
Above £25k floor
W1 · 07 Oct
£50,000
£20,000
£25,000
£45,000
£20,000
W2 · 14 Oct
£45,000
£25,000
£20,000
£50,000
£25,000
W3 · 21 Oct
£50,000
£15,000
£30,000
£35,000
£10,000
W4 · 28 Oct
£35,000
£30,000
£20,000
£45,000
£20,000
W5 · 04 Nov
£45,000
£20,000
£25,000
£40,000
£15,000
W6 · 11 Nov
£40,000
£25,000
£20,000
£45,000
£20,000
W7 · 18 Nov
£45,000
£15,000
£30,000
£30,000
£5,000
W8 · 25 Nov
£30,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£0
W9 · 02 Dec
£25,000
£20,000
£25,000
£20,000
−£5,000
W10 · 09 Dec
£20,000
£25,000
£20,000
£25,000
£0
W11 · 16 Dec
£25,000
£20,000
£20,000
£25,000
£0
W12 · 23 Dec
£25,000
£25,000
£15,000
£35,000
£10,000
W13 · 30 Dec
£35,000
£25,000
£15,000
£45,000
£20,000
13-week total / closing
£50,000
£280,000
£285,000
£45,000
£20,000
Weekly closing balances are tested against the floor; daily cash peaks and troughs are not modelled. The £3,000 AR208 promise is included in week 1, its £1,000 dispute excluded. AP104 is included in week 1 and AP105 in week 2. Simplifying assumptions: no tax, debt service, investing flows or non-cash charges; operating payments equal September expenses.
03 / Margin bridge
Where growth stopped reaching profit.
September management accounts · GBP
Bridge
September budget
September actual
Movement
Revenue
£110,000
£120,000
+£10,000
Direct costs
£62,000
£72,000
+£10,000
Gross profit
£48,000
£48,000
£0
Gross margin
43.6%
40.0%
−3.6 percentage points
Operating costs
£18,000
£18,000
£0
Operating profit
£30,000
£30,000
£0
Budget-to-actual gross profit bridge
Gross-profit driver
Impact
Budget gross profit
£48,000
Additional delivery volume
£6,000
Price and service mix
£4,000
Materials and subcontractors
−£7,000
Overtime
−£3,000
Actual gross profit
£48,000
Less operating costs
−£18,000
Operating profit
£30,000
Volume and mix contributions are synthetic management allocations. Cost drivers reconcile to the £10,000 direct-cost increase; this is not a causal model trained on customer data.
04 / AP and AR actions
Balances become owned next steps.
Selected balances and actions · as at 1 Oct 2026
Item
Source amount
Position
Next action
Owner
Due
Receivable · AR208
£6,000 billed; £2,000 received
£4,000 overdue: £1,000 disputed + £3,000 promised
Pause reminders on disputed £1,000; obtain delivery evidence. Confirm £3,000 promise for 7 Oct.
Collections lead
7 Oct 2026
Payable · AP104
£8,000 due 5 Oct
Critical supplier; approved
Prioritise in week 1 payment run; obtain separate release approval.
Finance lead
5 Oct 2026
Payable · AP105
£5,000 due 12 Oct
Receipt evidence missing
Resolve receipt before review. Week 2 forecast assumes approval by 12 Oct.
Operations lead
9 Oct 2026
AR208: £6,000 − £2,000 received = £4,000 open. £1,000 disputed + £3,000 promised = £4,000. Selected items do not represent the full receivables or payables ledger.
05 / Decision register
A recommendation with an owner and a follow-through.
Protect cash floor
Recommendation
Defer £12,000 equipment commitment until a refreshed downside stays above £25,000.
Alternatives
Lease or defer; neither alternative is included in this forecast.